Explorations 10: The Lemon Song

It’s hurricane season but fortunately it’s winding down just to give way to the equally dreadful artic blasts of winter. During the summer season of excess wind, one’s thoughts, for the curious anyway, inevitably lead to queries, theories, or low proof opinions attempting to understand the causality, if any, between the frequency and strength of hurricanes with climate change or global warming. These are perfectly sensible and logical thoughts along with the subsequent questions, such as: Are hurricanes increasing in frequency due to climate change? Are hurricanes increasing in strength due to climate change?

These are valid questions, but likely a more germane question, or three, may be: If climate change is occurring what would the expected outcome be for the frequency and strength of hurricanes? Increasing? Decreasing? Something else? Are human gas inputs into the planet’s atmosphere causally linked to its energy budget? What methods and processes would one employ to answer these questions?

If you thought, I was going to attempt to answer the questions posed above you would certainly be wrong. I do not have the training or knowledge to provide even a precursory opinion, much less a tested and critiqued theory, but I do know how to analyze data and dagnabit I’m going to do just that.

The data used in the analysis below comes from NOAA for the years 1851 through 2021. The data are for hurricane strength only storms, category 1-5, that made landfall over the Atlantic Basin lower 48 states: specifically, the coastal states from Texas to Maine. Excluded from the analysis are all the named Atlantic Basin storms that formed but did not make landfall. Satellites, beginning in the 1960s, are able to observe and track all hurricanes whether they make landfall or not. The satellites have detected considerably more hurricanes developing in the Atlantic Basin than past data, based on storm landfall, suggested. There is a strong link between the recent increase in hurricane strength and frequency due increased observational capabilities rather than anthropogenic origins contributing to climate change.

The graph above plots wind speed in mph versus year of formation for Atlantic Basin hurricanes making landfall along the lower US 48. Years with no hurricanes making landfall are excluded but they account for about 20% of the analyzed interval. The basic analysis of the data shows that for the chosen years, 1851-2021, the average hurricane at landfall is a category 2 storm with an average speed of 100 mph. The trend line shows that the strength of landfall hurricanes has not appreciable changed over the last 170 years: slope of the trend line is 0.0077 or among friends can be taken as 0.

The graph above is the same as the first one shown except, I have attempted to account for the years with no hurricanes making landfall. I accounted for the years of no landfall by setting those data points to 0 mph. I am not comfortable with this approach but ignoring 20% of the data isn’t correct either. The analysis of the data is not significantly different from the previous graph. The average hurricane speed at landfall has decreased to 91 mph from 100 before with the average category being 2. 91 mph is a category 1 hurricane so the average category should be 1 but this is just a rounding up error. Slope of the trend line is again near 0.

The frequency of landfall hurricanes also shows little variation over time. The average number of hurricanes is 1.86 per year with the maximum number of 11 hurricanes occurring in 1917. The gaps in the x-axis are the years with no hurricanes.

The NOAA hurricane data presents a picture of little to no variation in hurricane strength or frequency from 1851-2021. What this says about climate change or global warmer is indeterminant. The question asked above about what changes are expected in hurricane frequency and strength if climate change is occurring needs answering before hurricane variability can be linked to it as a known outcome or consequence.

The Other Michelangelo

Caravaggio: The Complete Works

By Sebastian Schutze

Published by TASCHEN

Copyright: © 2015

The other Michelangelo, Michelangelo Merisi da Caravaggio, was born almost 100 years after the Michelangelo of Florence and Sistine Chaple fame, in the northern Italian city of Milian, at the time a part of the Spanish Empire; coming of age as a painter in the dying days of the Renaissance art period and the birth of Baroque, developing and leading a style with an increased attention to detail, lighting, and volume not so much in contrast, but in addition to the scientific realism of the previous 200 years.

Caravaggio took the Baroque art beyond the biblical themes of the Renaissance while retaining the humanism, maintaining naturalism but with detail likely unavailable to painters before him, improving on perspective and volume through the use of light and dark: Chiaroscuro, and giving the subjects an emotional bearing that communicates to the viewer a deportment not obtainable to the first Michelangelo.

The book cover, Judith beheading Holofernes, detail above with full painting shown below, depicts Judith looking down and to the viewers left with a look, according to some, of revulsion and disgust, but my interpretation is one of apathy and possibly puzzlement, as noted by the slight creases between the eyebrows and the bridge of the nose and the minor squint of the eyes. Panning out may add an unquestioning repugnance to the painting but not to Judith’s countenance, it remains one of bemusement, a ‘is this all there is’ to vanquishing one’s enemy, while an old woman looks over Judith’s shoulder concurring, not seeing the gore of the moment but the moral of the act and feeling ‘Good, it is done’. The detail may be there, but the viewers interpretation is still required.

Caravaggio, CC BY-SA 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

Boo in the Night

Ghosts: A Treasury of Chilling Tales Old and New

Edited By Marvin Kaye

Published by Borders Classics

Copyright: © 2005

A ghostly collection of 53 short stories of the supernatural by authors known and unknown, many memorable, a few best forgotten, the frightening mingled with the ridiculous, overall, a compilation worthy of nighttime reading and bedtime frights.

This selection of stories mainly spans from the 1850s through the 1980s, with the big gun authors of Dickens, Wilde, Irving, Asimov, and Collins providing the most entertaining accounts of ghosts and their distressed victims. Dickens supplies the best punch line ending – ever in the ‘The Tale of Bagman’s Uncle”. Wilde’s ‘The Canterville Ghost” keeps it on the light side with a ghost slowly losing his mojo. Washington Irving’s contribution is from one of his lesser known, but delicious tales: ‘The Tale of the German Student’, a cautionary story for the good Samaritan. ‘Legal Rites’ is a tongue in check, but altogether a very original story by the sci-fi master Isaac Asimov featuring a ghost deciding that an imaginative lawyer trumps a milquetoast haunting.

There is more in this book of short stories, much more with plenty of authors that you have known since your younger years and a few that will turn out to be new friends in the future. The tales are all fun and short enough to read to go to sleep by. Sweet dreams.

Lawyer Stories Three

Sparring Partners

By John Grisham

Published by Doubleday

Copyright: © 2022

A trilogy of quick read novellas, although the form is closer to that of short stories; few characters with limited development and abrupt, into the concrete wall endings, detailing new tales of old friends and old tales of corrupt and feeble lawyers all wrapped around a common theme of dysfunctional families.

Digressing a bit, estimates for the number of books ever written, from Gilgamesh and the Book of Genesis, 3500-4000 years ago to the present day exceed 100,000,000 to maybe 150,000,000 with a couple million new titles added every year. I insert this tidbit of data into the discussion because I seldom read anything current in fiction for the simple reason that the catalogue of available books is unimaginably vast, hopelessly unreadable quantities with literature quality spanning parsecs of space and ink. Books of fiction that remain in print for 25-30 years and longer commonly have survived because a large audience has voted favorably on the work. Waiting for others to pass judgement relieves me of the painful task choosing good reads.

Returning to Grisham’s Sparring Partners, as I was hopping around Texas spending uneventful nights alone in uninteresting hotels, I went looking for a quick read from a known author in a shop selling mainly current best sellers. From the cover of this book the publishers state that Grisham has an unbroken string of 47 best sellers, a decent record for believing that the Sparring Partners would provide a fair bit of entertainment, possible reading enjoyment. The jury is still out but reverting to reading old books seems prudent.

A Bygone Era

Norman Rockwell’s Christmas Book

By Molly Rockwell

Published by Harry N. Abrams

Copyright: © 1977

A beautiful collection of Norman Rockwell’s Christmas and winter scenes interspersed with Christmas stories, music, and more that you have experienced and loved since you were a little, wide-eyed tyke waiting for permission to tear into your presents.

The book not only contains some great Rockwell snapshots of Christmas but timeless stories of Christmas cheer, that if you haven’t read you should, just for the heart-warming smiles they will bring to your fuddy duddy lips and cheeks. O’Henry’s Gift of the Magi is here along with Moore’s Night Before Christmas, Dicken’s Christmas goblin short story, Virginia’s, “Is there a Santa Claus?” letter, and the newspaper’s response, all to remind and reinforce why Christmas is the world’s favorite holiday.

This book was first published in 1977, which is the one I have, with various reprintings and content expansions through the years, the most recent edition coming out in 2009. The new edition contains additional Rockwell paintings along with poster size prints that are ready for framing. Merry Christmas.

It Happened Already

The Stars and The Earth or Thoughts upon Time, Space, and Eternity

By Felix Eberty

Translator: Josephine Caruana

Published by Comino-Verlag

Copyright: © 2018

A short read reflecting on the information carried by a photon as it reaches your eye from the far reaches of space.

Originally the book was published in two volumes, both together totaling less than 80 pages, in 1846 and 1847. The book sought the union of physics and religion, metaphysics; for God sees the past and the present as a single point in the space time continuum, time stopping when moving with the light, observing all in three dimensions rather than four. Eberty continues his thesis from an all-seeing God to a time when man’s technological progress allows him to see as God sees or the child of God becomes a god.

Eberty knowing that the speed of light was finite, about 300,000 km/s, contemplated that all visuals captured by any type of eye, human or otherwise, happened in the past. The past including an inconceivably, insignificantly small amount of time in the past, such as a plate of mac and cheese in front of you, is still in the past, what you see has already occurred. Jurgen Neffe, author of a biography of Albert Einstein, stated it succinctly “time travels with light”. Observing light traveling from a billion light years away exhibits events as they happened a billion years ago but if you traveled with those photons for those billion years the past occurs at the same time as your present.

Eberty’s thoughts on the meaning of time and space were recognized at the time not only as novel but metaphysical in nature, maybe not so much today.

You Are Here: Now What?

Return of the God Hypothesis

By Stephen C. Meyers

Published by HarperOne

Copyright: © 2021

An interesting if not an enlightening, but thoroughly tedious treatise.

Meyer, in excruciating detail, examines the evidence for a universe designed, created, and set into motion by the hand of God. His proofs assess how the universe is perfectly tuned to foster our existence, how human DNA’s complexity is beyond random chance, and how the explosion of multi-celled life forms during the Cambrian Period (485-539 mya (million years ago)) is unlikely Darwinian in nature.

The first two proofs are plausible, and his arguments are meticulously developed, while the Cambrian explosion of life does not address the hundreds of millions to a billion years of missing rock section prior to the beginning to the Cambrian Period. The explosion of life may simply be a function of where one begins to sample the evidence.

Meyer’s case for God orchestrating our existence is convincing but you only need to read Part II, about 150 pages in the hardback version of the book, while the other 300 pages can be consigned to doctoral students in logic and religion.

Universal Physics and Local Irrelevance

Einstein: A Biography

By Jurgen Neffe

Translated by Shelly Frisch

Published by Farrar, Straus and Giroux

Copyright: © 2007

Neffe brings comprehension to relativity but muddles Einstein’s personal life to inaptness.

Neffe’s non-linear telling of Einstein’s life adds little to the story and a lot of unnecessary page flipping for the reader to grasp the author’s intermittent and incomplete style of writing, whereas his layman descriptions of the theory of relativity generally clears the accumulated fog of physics to bring basic understanding Einstein’s science.

Photoshop Beginnings

I decided to add another hobby to my list of things to waste my time on and today I began my journey into learning Photoshop. I may regret starting this.

This short post falls under the heading of ‘You have to start somewhere’ and with software as non-intuitive as Photoshop that more or less means a few steps past launching the program. I began with something simple hoping that it would facilitate learning the interface–but it didn’t.

I started with a photo shown above left of a sphinx I took in the museum at Delphi, Greece ten or twelve years ago.

I wanted to replace the drab museum walls surrounding the sphinx with a more pleasing background. The lower waterfalls from Lombok Island, shown to the right, an island immediately east of Bali in the Indonesian Archipelago, fitted the need for a more interesting background.

Both pictures were imported into Photoshop as layers. I cropped the sphinx pic and removed its background and then I arranged the layers so the sphinx is on top the waterfall pic. The result is shown to the left.

The composite pic only took a few minutes once I understood the Photoshop jargon and found the right buttons, but that took about 45 painful minutes. The software is not for the casual user, and it will take some time reach a proficiency that doesn’t raise my blood pressure every time I use it. I’ll post something a little more involved later on.

Early Italian Renaissance Painting

Piero Della Francesca

By Anna Maria Maetzke

Photographs by Alessandro Benci

Published by Silvana Editoriale

Copyright: © 2013

An art book short on art and long on art history and art criticism.

Piero della Francesca, born in Tuscany in the early 15th century, is regarded as a true master before his time, eerily anticipating post impression by 500 years. Francesca was a major force in inputting perspective into paintings, greatly influenced by an Italian contemporary polymath, Leon Battista Alberti.

Francesca’s greatest works include the painting to the right, Federico da Montefeltro, Duke of Urbino, and the fresco, The Legend of the True Cross, located within the basilica of San Francesco in Arezzo, Italy.

The book contains all surviving paintings by the artist, about 150, which showcase his genius when compared with fellow artists such as Donatello and Brunelleschi, along with extensive research and commentary on Francesca’s life and art.

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