Monthly Archives: February 2024

Exploration 21: Change in the Weather

23 February 2024 By in Climate, Weather Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment 
Change in the weather, change in the weather
Something's happening here
Change in the weather, change in the weather
People walkin' 'round in fear
Change in the Weather-John Fogerty-Eye of the Zombie (Album)-1986

Weather and climate are often confused as being the same, but they are definitely not the same. Weather is what you worry about when you’re planning a trip to the beach or a hike in the mountains. Weather patterns occur for a few days, a few weeks, maybe even for a few years then those patterns dissipate, and everything reverts to the mean. The 1930s, in the plain states of North America, experienced a prolonged drought, hot temperatures, and high winds, putting dirt into everything everywhere. These conditions lasted about a decade then the weather returned to what most would call normal conditions. Exceptionally cold winters show up every 20-40 years, lasting until you finally decide to move to Florida and then they’re over.

The point is that weather events can set temperature and precipitation records for that day or that year but then it all settles down with a retreat from the extremes back to normal conditions. This is not a change in climate, just a change in the weather.

Climate is a long-term event that has a period of at least 30 years and usually a lot longer and the changes tend to last for 100s of years. Climate is something you shouldn’t worry about. It may impact your grandchildren or great grandchildren, but you are going to live out your life in blissful happiness of carping about the rainstorm ruining your tennis game and succulents, but it will not be an end of life as you know it or your life, or your neighbor’s life, just another day riding out the storm. Then it’s gone.

When the climate does change volcanoes seem to have an overwhelming part to play in initiating the change. To cause climate change really big explosive volcanos are needed, not the run of the mill Mt. St. Helens or Mt. Pinatubo variety. They were spectacular for sure, and they did drop the temperatures for a year or two, but they were not climate changing volcanoes. On the Volcanic Explosive Index scaled from 1-8, 8 being an absolute monster, Mt. St. Helen and Mt. Pinatubo were mere kiddies throwing tantrums, only VEI 5 and 6s, respectively. Big but the grownups just smile at their antics.

Climate changing volcanoes need to be rated in the 7 and 8 categories. These VEI 7 and 8 volcanoes eject 100-1000s of cubic kilometers of material into the troposphere and stratosphere affecting climate for 100s or years. One VEI 8 volcano can likely initiate global cooling by itself, but VEI 7 volcanic eruptions will likely need an assist from several smaller volcanic eruptions to affect climate change. There have been no VEI 8 volcanoes in the Holocene and only 4 VEI 7 volcanoes have erupted in the last 10,000 years: Mazama 5700 BC, Kikai 4300 BC, Samala 1257 AD, and Tambora 1815 AD.

Tambora cooled the Earth by about 5.5 degrees Fahrenheit and led to a year without summer in 1816. This year was also referred to as “Eighteen Hundred and Froze to Death” and the “Poverty Year” because of the extreme weather conditions. In New England, for instance, six inches of snow fell in June and every month of the year had a hard frost. These conditions led to hoarding and significant price increases for agricultural commodities, causing many people to go hungry. It is estimated that tens of millions of lives were lost to the volcano, either directly from the explosion or indirectly from starvation due to crop failures and disease. Tambora was a massive volcano but even it by itself was insufficient to cause any lasting climate change. A few years after Tambora or for that matter, Mazama and Kikai, the weather returned to normal. Samala is a different matter and it’s discussed below.

Be happy, don’t worry. Below are some examples of when the climate really did change and luckily for us, we are not due for anything life changing for a few hundred more years.

Pre-Holocene and Holocene Climate Changes:

FootNoteA
  • The Wisconsin glaciation, North America’s last occurrence of continental glaciers, began between about 100,000 and 75,000 years ago and ended about 11,000 years ago. At its peak, the ice sheets, in places almost 2 miles thick, covered most of Canada, the Upper Midwest, and New England, as well as parts of Idaho, Montana, and Washington. The Cordilleran Ice Sheet, which covered the area between the Rocky Mountains and the Pacific coast, had expanded south as far as the state of Washington. The Laurentide Ice Sheet, which covered the eastern four-fifths of the continent, had advanced as far as southeastern South Dakota, northern Iowa, central Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, and northern Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The Earth’s tilt is one of the likely contenders for the formation of Wisconsinian glaciers although some speculate it may have been due to a decrease in CO2.
  • The Last Glacial Maximum, LGM, the greatest extent of the Wisconsinan ice sheets, occurred approximately from 26,000-20,000 years ago. The beginning of the end of the LGM in the northern hemisphere commenced around 20,000-19,000 years ago with the West Antarctica ice sheet starting to decline in size around 15,000-14,000 years ago. The West Antarctica melting of the glaciers led to a rise in the sea levels of approximately fifty feet in three hundred years. The current rate of sea level rise is approximately 14 inches per 100 years. The seas from 14,000-6500 years ago rose 360 feet due to world-wide melting of the Wisconsinian aged glaciers. The melting of glaciers from the LGM is attributed to changes in the Earth’s orbit or more solar energy hitting the northern hemisphere, along with the rise in CO2 which came from the overturning of the deep waters in the Southern Ocean.
FootNoteB
  • The Younger Dryas period saw a return to glacial conditions approximately 12,900-11,700 years ago. During this time, temperatures fell 7-18 degrees Fahrenheit, with this drop occurring within one hundred years; overnight in geological time. There is no consensus on the cause of this return to glacial conditions but two of the leading contenders are enormous amounts of fresh water from melting glaciers mixing with the sea water causing the ocean currents to slow down, leading to a cooler Europe and North America along with increased Arctic Sea ice. It is also believed that increased fresh water into the seas can also cause warming, so scratch your head and buyer beware. The other possibility is increased volcanic activity.
FootNoteC
  • The Neoglacial Period occurred about five thousand years ago, around the time of the beginning of the Early Dynastic Period in Egypt and continued until the medieval warm period. During this period glaciers advanced globally. Temperatures were thought to be about 0.5-degree Fahrenheit cooler than today. The 26,000-year Milankovitch cycle is thought to be the cause of cooling. This cycle affects the tilt of the Earth and thus the amount of sunlight reaching the planet’s poles.
  • The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) or the Medieval Climate Optimum or the Medieval Climatic Anomaly, occurred from approximately 950-1250 AD. It is predominately a Northern Hemispheric event that raised temperatures 3- or 4-degrees Fahrenheit. Europe during this period reported alpine tree lines rising in elevation and increased crop yields. Why MWP occurred is poorly understood and potential causes include increased solar activity and or reduced volcanic activity. This period was followed almost immediately by the Little Ice Age.
  • The Little Ice Age was a time of regional cooling beginning in the 14th century and continuing into the mid-19th century or 1300-1850. Evidence from glacial advances throughout the world suggests that the cooling did not occur at the same time everywhere. The cooling is estimated to have been 2-3.5 degrees Fahrenheit lower than present temperatures. Various theories have been brought forward for why the temperatures dropped during this period but heightened volcanic activity is the favored cause. On the island of Lombok in Indonesia in 1257 the volcano Samalas erupted with a VEI of 7, making it one of the largest volcanic explosions in the last 10,000 years. Before and after Samala erupted another three smaller volcanic eruptions in 1230, 1276, and 1286 followed suit which likely led to increased cooling due to excessive volcanic material in the troposphere and stratosphere. These smaller eruptions are inferred from other data, but the exact volcanoes are unknown.
  • The Modern Warm Period followed the Little Ice Age, and the Earth is still in the midst of this climate period.

References and Readings:

FootNotes:

  • FootNoteA: Extent of Wisconsinian Glaciers. Idaho Museum of Natural History. No date
  • FootNoteB: Ellesmere Island Glacier. By Matti&Keti, and Lorenz King. Wikipedia. 1978
  • FootNoteC: Mt. Fuji. By Dall E 3. 2024

Explorations 20: Again, You Speak

19 February 2024 By in Satellite Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

The United States Air Force commissioned the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory to design and build a series of satellites, known as Lincoln Experimental Satellite (LES), that would test both devices and techniques for satellite communication. The stated goal was to increase the downlink transmission capabilities of small satellites. The development phase of the program ran from 1965 to 1976 but the last satellite developed, LES-9, continued to transmit data for 44 years until it was decommissioned in the year 2020.

FootnoteA

The first satellite the Lincoln Laboratory developed was the LES-1. It was designed to test a solid-state X-band transmitter while in orbit above the Earth. A ground-based mobile receiver was also part of the test package.

The LES-1 was a 26-sided polyhedron, with eighteen square faces and eight triangular faces. Also known as a rhombicuboctahedron, a small rhombicuboctahedron, or an Archimedean solid, if you really must know. It had a diameter of 61 cm (24 inches) and a mass of 31 kg (68 lbs.). The square faces were covered with 2,376 solar cells generating a minimum of 26 W in sunlight. The eight triangular faces held Earth and Sun sensors and eight semi-directional horn antennas.

FootNoteB

The satellite was launched on a Titan 3A rocket which was a modified two-stage Titan 2 ICBM with a third stage added. The rocket lifted off from Kennedy Space Center on 11 February 1965 and the first two stages performed their mission successfully. The third stage after its first burn placed the satellite into its planned 185-kilometer (115 mile) orbit. The second burn of the third stage moved the satellite into a 2,777 by 2806 kilometer (1726 by 1744 miles) slightly elliptical orbit. At this point, the satellite was deployed with a destination of 18,500-kilometer (11495 mile) apogee orbit. Because of a malfunction the smaller attached satellite rocket didn’t fire, and the satellite remained in its 2,777-kilometer orbit. Despite this failure, the project was still able to collect some useful data, but the satellite was spinning out of control making continued operations difficult. The LES 1 was shut down in 1967.

On 18 December 2012, the satellite woke up after 46 years of silence. A signal from LES 1 was detected in North Cornwall, England by an amateur radio operator. It is believed that a short developed in the satellite which allowed its power system to reach the transmitter directly. The signal being transmitted is believed to be a test tone but because the satellite is tumbling it sounds ghostly and garbled.

As of 2022 the satellite is still transmitting. It is now referred to as a zombie satellite.

References and Readings:

Abandoned in Space in 1967, a U.S. Satellite Started Transmitting Again in 2013. By Stefan Andrews. The Vintage News. 2017

Zombie Satellites: The Tale of Lincoln Experimental Satellite 1. By Andrew LePage. Drew Ex Machina. 2022

NSSDCA/COSPAR ID: 1965-008C. By Unknown. NASA. Date Unknown

FootNotes:

FootNoteA: LES 1 with Kick Motor. U.S. Air Force photo. Public Domain

FootNoteB: Launch of the first Titan IIIA from Pad 20, 1 Sept 1964. U.S. Air Force photo. Public Domain.

Florida Today

17 February 2024 By in Biography, Books Nonfiction, Politics Tags: , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

The Courage to Be Free

By Ron DeSantis

Broadside Books

Copyright: © 2023

AmazonPicture

DeSantis Biography and Courage to Be Free:

“At the end of the day, I’m fighting for the things I said I’d fight for.” – Ron DeSantis

Courage to Be Free is the Florida governor’s biography with a good measure of politics, vision and American government thrown in. It’s a simple read from someone selling himself as an authentic American and an honest and ethical broker who supports the citizens through good government.

Ron Desantis was born in Jacksonville, Florida in 1978, married Casey Black in 2009, and has three children, two girls and a boy. He attended Yale and graduated in 2001 with a B.A. A year later he entered Harvard and graduated with a law degree in 2005. During law school he was commissioned as an officer in the U.S. Navy. In 2007 he was assigned as a legal advisor to SEAL Team One in Fallujah, Iraq where he was awarded the Bronze Star.

In 2012 he was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives and was re-elected in 2014 and 2016. DeSantis decided not to run for re-election to the House for the 2018 term but instead competed for the Florida governorship which he won. He won re-election in 2022 and as he is term limited by Florida law will not seek that office in 2024. Since he has dropped out of the Presidential race what he does next is an open question.

The first half of Desantis’ book is dedicated to his biography followed by his vision of government and national policy. He draws heavily on the expository essays and articles within the Federalist Papers and their vision for a constitutional republic. The authors of the Federalist Papers, Madison, Hamilton, and Jay argue strenuously for a republican form of government and against direct democracy which one could paraphrase in slang terms as mob rule. DeSantis agrees.

His political philosophy is simple in principle, excoriatingly difficult in execution. Encapsulating his thoughts he states, “The right path forward is not difficult to identify; it just requires using basic common sense and applying core American values…” He follows this up with his blueprint for Florida and America: “Be willing to lead, have the courage of your convictions, deliver for your constituents, and reap the political rewards.” Reaping the political rewards sounds like every politician that has ever walked the face of this Earth and I don’t recognize that as a positive trait.

Literary Criticism:

Courage to Be Free was a number one bestseller in the New York Times, Wallstreet Journal, Amazon, and Publisher’s Weekly shortly after it was released in 2023. Although sales figures are almost impossible to find, for free, the book had an initial print run of 250,000. There hasn’t been a second printing.

Hagiographies are one sided affairs with nary a discouraging word to be found, with sainthood lurking right around the corner. DeSantis autobiography is a hagiography but in fairness one doesn’t provide his opposition with free negative research when your goal is to introduce yourself to the public.

This book had only one purpose, to launch DeSantis into the 2024 presidential Republican primary in the best possible light and as a bonus, get your targeted audience to pay for it by purchasing the book. It admirably accomplishes the task, but it certainly is not a literary masterpiece, rather it reads like a college term paper completed under duress. Simple, direct, with no flowery prose or memorable lines. If you want to learn something about this man, give it perusal, a quick read is all it needs and watch one or two of his Republican primary debates for additional elucidation.

The only reason I read this book was because of the title: The Courage to Be Free. It reminded me of the title of John F. Kennedy’s Profiles in Courage. Kennedy’s book employs a better writing style but that is because Kennedy didn’t author his book. In a previous post I stated who did and I’ll leave it to you to look it up if you are curious. In the end both are about embellishing their respective reputations. Mission accomplished.

References and Readings:

Exploration 25: Weather Everywhere

10 February 2024 By in Weather Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

The northern great plains of the U.S. experienced an exceptionally mild 2023-2024 winter, about 10 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, due to the onset of a strong El Nino event, now called a Super El Nino by some. As is shown below, this categorization as super is overstated. Hyperbole by the press is a bad habit they just can’t seem to break.

National Geographic defines an El Nino, along with its sister event, La Nina as, “…a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. El Nino is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). La Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the region’s surface waters. El Nino and La Nina (EN) are considered the ocean part of ENSO, while the Southern Oscillation (SO) is its atmospheric changes.”

El Nino events last from 9-12 months on average with a rare occurrence lasting up to 18 months. La Nina events can endure for longer periods than El Ninos with some lasting up to 24 months. Both weather events reoccur every 2-7 years for reasons unknown but may be, and this is stretch on my part, related to polar and core wobbles. Earth’s axis experiences two discrete periodic oscillations; the 14 month Chandler Wobble and a 12 month wobble. These two wobbles cause the poles to trace a spiral path over about 6.5 years. Earth’s inner core mysteriously wobbles with a periodicity of approximately 8.5 years. The combination of these wobbles may help explain the peridicity of ENSO weather events.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration states: “El Nino usually causes increased rainfall and sometimes destructive flooding. La Nina, however, usually causes drier weather in the South, but the Northwest tends to be colder and wetter than average. Even though El Nino occurs in the Pacific Ocean, it often reduces the number of hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean. Conversely, La Nina events tend to be related to an increase in the number of Atlantic hurricanes.”

Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin occur less often, supposedly, during El Nino than La Nina. This is because there is less vertical wind shear in the troposphere during a La Nina than an El Nino. Wind shear tears hurricanes apart while the lack of wind shear allows hurricanes to form and intensify. Wind shear in the troposphere develops due to pressure gradients which in turn are caused by temperature contrasts between the ocean surface and high-altitude tropospheric air. During El Nino warm ocean surface waters create a greater contrast with the high-altitude cool troposphere air than the cooler La Nina ocean surface waters do. Wind shear lessens when the temperature contrast decreases between the ocean surface and higher altitudes. When ocean temperatures are higher, wind shear is greater resulting in fewer hurricanes. With lower ocean temperatures, wind shear is less resulting in more hurricanes.

This is the theory, whereas actual hurricanes making landfall appear to increase in numbers after weak to moderate El Ninos rather than strong ones. There doesn’t appear to be any correlation between strong El Ninos and increases in hurricanes making landfall during the subsequent La Nina events.

This year’s El Nino was driven by a larger than normal spike in Pacific Ocean temperatures that were about 0.5-degree Fahrenheit above 2022 temperatures. This is considered an exceptionally large increase. This has led to warmer, dryer winters in the upper mid-western states of the U.S. along with greater precipitation in the western U.S.

The graph below, from NOAA Climate.gov, shows the change in average winter temperatures during strong El Ninos since 1950. In northeastern North Dakota during the 2023-2024 winter, from the months December to February, temperatures are about 10 degrees warmer on average than the previous year’s winter temperatures. This increase is similar to what was experienced in the 1997-1998 El Nino.

The graph below, again from NOAA Climate.gov, shows winter precipitation during strong El Ninos since 1950. In Long Beach, California the 1997-1998 winter brought 17.77 inches of rain whereas the winter of 2023-2024 has already brought 13.88 inches of rain with 19 days left in the month of February to add to that total. This year’s winter precipitation in Long Beach should be similar to what occurred in the 1997-1998 winter season.

The winter that is occurring in northeastern North Dakota is like what happened temperature-wise 26 years ago during the 1997-1998 winter. Similarly, in Long Beach California the El Nino induced precipitation is likely to be about the same as the totals for this same El Nino event.

In conclusion the strong El Nino of 2022-2023 is a carbon copy of the strong El Nino that occurred 26 years ago during the winter of 1997-1998. The end of 1997-1998 El Nino was followed by seven hurricanes making landfall during the 1999 season suggesting the 2024 season should see about the same number of hurricanes making landfall.

References and Readings:

Chateau Marjosse Bordeaux 2020

4 February 2024 By in Red Wine Tags: , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

Bordeaux Red Blend from Bordeaux, France

14.5% alcohol

Purchased: 18 August 2023 – $14.99

Opened: 22 January 2024

els:  9.0/10

James Suckling:  90

Decanter:  91

“Marjosse is my secret garden. It gives me energy. It is important for me to have this place and share it.” – Pierre Lurton.

This is a medium-bodied, deep-reddish purple Bordeaux with scents of plums and blackberries. It is a merlot heavy blend with secondary amounts of cabernet sauvignon, cabernet franc and malbec. This is a outstanding wine at a good price.

Chateau Marjosse is a right bank Bordeaux vineyard in the Entre Deux Mers appellation, owned and operated by Pierre Lurton. The vineyard is just under 124 acres, planted mostly in merlot. Smaller portions of cabernet franc, cabernet sauvignon, sauvignon blanc, semillon, chardonnay, old vine malbec and muscadelle. For the red wine, the planted varieties of grape are 80% merlot, 10% cabernet sauvignon, 10% cabernet franc, and a smidgen of malbec. There are three main soil types: sand and red clay, sand and white clay, and limestone. The vines are planted on sloping hillsides, rising almost one thousand feet above sea level. (The above quote is from The Wine Independent article published in February 2023.)