Explorations 12: If I had a Hammer

If I had a hammer
I’d hammer in the morning
I’d hammer in the evening
All over this land

Songwriters: Lee Hays and Pete Seeger.

Seeger and Hays’ ‘If I had a Hammer’, a song about justice and freedom, was first played by the writers at a testimonial dinner in 1949 supporting the US Communist Party. 1949 was the same year Seeger finally wised up to his former friend, and hero Joseph Stalin, disowning him for being the butcher that he had been all along. The song was eventually rebranded to support the civil rights and labor movements of the 1950s and 60s. After the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Lyndon Johnson’s mid-sixties Great Society War on Poverty programs passed at the Federal level, the song found a new home amoung the environmentalists. With only a hammer in your fist all the world’s problems big, small, and imagined are nails.

Below are a few recent and past headlines concerning climate change which taken in aggregate are a mash of the silly. Climate change in today’s jargon, by the way, equals global warming. Models of any kind, whether on population, food, weather, climate, prices, crime, are not reliable more than a few years into the future and in the case of weather a few days at most.

Fresh water is bad.

Small Lakes Keep Growing Across The Planet, And It’s a Serious Problem

Science Alert reports (5 December 2022): “A new study has revealed that small lakes on Earth have expanded considerably over the last four decades – a worrying development, considering the amount of greenhouse gases freshwater reservoirs emit.”

Frozen fresh water is good, but it could turn into fresh water.

Climate Change: Kilimanjaro’s and Africa’s Last Glaciers to go by 2050, Says UN

BBC reports (3 November 2022): “Glaciers across the globe – including the last ones in Africa – will be unavoidably lost by 2050 due to climate change, the UN says in a report.”

Salt water is good.

Great Salt Lake Could Disappear by 2027 Researchers Warn

Axios reports (9 January 2023): “If the Great Salt Lake continues to shrink at its current rate, it could disappear in the next five years, according to researchers from more than a dozen universities and environmental organizations.”

Salt water is double good because it’s main use is to make frozen water for Hollywood A-listers.

36 Year Timelapse Shows How Much The Great Salt Lake Has Shrunk

Unofficial Networks reports (5 May 2022): “The Great Salt Lake has decreased twenty feet in elevation from the record high set in 1985 to the record low achieved last year. … Pray to whatever god, gods, higher power, or whatever you believe in. Utah, and the American west need water, badly. (Editor’s note: the Great Salt Lake is not a source of drinking or irrigation water, but it is the primary source of water for the snow that falls on the Sundance Resorts. When it melts in the spring it turns into bad fresh water.)

Frozen fresh water is still good, and fortuitously the bad fresh water will take longer to appear.

Half of World’s Glaciers will Vanish by Year 2100 Due to Global Warming, Study Says

UPI reports (6 January 2023): “Half of the world’s glaciers will melt and disappear before the turn of the next century, according to alarming new research that predicts greater fallout from global warming despite meaningful efforts in recent years to address environmental concerns.

Frozen fresh water is still good even if you must admit your models are bad.

Glacier National Park is Replacing Signs That Predicted Its Glaciers Would be Gone by 2020

CNN reports (8 January 2020): “The signs at Glacier National Park warning that its signature glaciers would be gone by 2020 are being replaced.

The signs in the Montana park were added more than a decade ago to reflect climate change forecasts at the time by the US Geological Survey, park spokeswoman Gina Kurzmen told CNN.

In 2017, the park was told by the agency that the complete melting off [sic] of the glaciers was no longer expected to take place so quickly due to changes in the forecast model, Kurzmen said.”

Frozen water could be bad when it appears but it’s hard to tell because the models are not good.

Snowfalls are Now Just a Thing of the Past

The Independent reports (20 March 2000): “Britain’s winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives. …Heavy snow will return occasionally, says Dr. Viner, but when it does we will be unprepared. …Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years’ time, he said.”

Explorations 10: The Lemon Song

It’s hurricane season but fortunately it’s winding down just to give way to the equally dreadful artic blasts of winter. During the summer season of excess wind, one’s thoughts, for the curious anyway, inevitably lead to queries, theories, or low proof opinions attempting to understand the causality, if any, between the frequency and strength of hurricanes with climate change or global warming. These are perfectly sensible and logical thoughts along with the subsequent questions, such as: Are hurricanes increasing in frequency due to climate change? Are hurricanes increasing in strength due to climate change?

These are valid questions, but likely a more germane question, or three, may be: If climate change is occurring what would the expected outcome be for the frequency and strength of hurricanes? Increasing? Decreasing? Something else? Are human gas inputs into the planet’s atmosphere causally linked to its energy budget? What methods and processes would one employ to answer these questions?

If you thought, I was going to attempt to answer the questions posed above you would certainly be wrong. I do not have the training or knowledge to provide even a precursory opinion, much less a tested and critiqued theory, but I do know how to analyze data and dagnabit I’m going to do just that.

The data used in the analysis below comes from NOAA for the years 1851 through 2021. The data are for hurricane strength only storms, category 1-5, that made landfall over the Atlantic Basin lower 48 states: specifically, the coastal states from Texas to Maine. Excluded from the analysis are all the named Atlantic Basin storms that formed but did not make landfall. Satellites, beginning in the 1960s, are able to observe and track all hurricanes whether they make landfall or not. The satellites have detected considerably more hurricanes developing in the Atlantic Basin than past data, based on storm landfall, suggested. There is a strong link between the recent increase in hurricane strength and frequency due increased observational capabilities rather than anthropogenic origins contributing to climate change.

The graph above plots wind speed in mph versus year of formation for Atlantic Basin hurricanes making landfall along the lower US 48. Years with no hurricanes making landfall are excluded but they account for about 20% of the analyzed interval. The basic analysis of the data shows that for the chosen years, 1851-2021, the average hurricane at landfall is a category 2 storm with an average speed of 100 mph. The trend line shows that the strength of landfall hurricanes has not appreciable changed over the last 170 years: slope of the trend line is 0.0077 or among friends can be taken as 0.

The graph above is the same as the first one shown except, I have attempted to account for the years with no hurricanes making landfall. I accounted for the years of no landfall by setting those data points to 0 mph. I am not comfortable with this approach but ignoring 20% of the data isn’t correct either. The analysis of the data is not significantly different from the previous graph. The average hurricane speed at landfall has decreased to 91 mph from 100 before with the average category being 2. 91 mph is a category 1 hurricane so the average category should be 1 but this is just a rounding up error. Slope of the trend line is again near 0.

The frequency of landfall hurricanes also shows little variation over time. The average number of hurricanes is 1.86 per year with the maximum number of 11 hurricanes occurring in 1917. The gaps in the x-axis are the years with no hurricanes.

The NOAA hurricane data presents a picture of little to no variation in hurricane strength or frequency from 1851-2021. What this says about climate change or global warmer is indeterminant. The question asked above about what changes are expected in hurricane frequency and strength if climate change is occurring needs answering before hurricane variability can be linked to it as a known outcome or consequence.

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