In November 2024, China’s state media announced the discovery of a “supergiant” gold deposit in the Wangu Gold Field, Hunan Province. Initial exploration and delineation drilling confirmed approximately 300 metric tons (9,645,225 troy ounces) in place. Subsequent geologic modeling suggests that the total resource may exceed 1000 metric tons (32,150,750 troy ounces), potentially making it the largest known deposit in the world.

At the current October 2025 gold price of $4,267.30 per ounce that equates to about $137.3 billion in gross value assuming an unrealistic 100% recovery.

But is all this gold recoverable without sinking vast capital only to lose more in the process? Public data remains limited, yet a ballpark estimate is possible.

Incorporating global subsurface mining economics, the project, assuming a capital expenditure of $12.5 billion and operating costs of $2100 per ounce, would be profitable. Its projected return of 17% is respectable but far from spectacular (more on this below). Not the proverbial gold mine, but a respectable sovereign nest egg, nonetheless.

However, when factoring in a 40% chance of technical success, the projects’ risk-adjusted return drops below 7%, falling short of industry’s typical 10% threshold. In economic terms, the project fails; at least under current conditions and postulated costs.

The deposit is hosted in Neoproterozoic, between 1 billion to 538 million years ago, sandy and silty slates within the Jiangnan orogenic belt. It comprises over 40 quartz-sulfide veins, located from 2000-3000 meters (6500-9850 feet), and associated with north-west trending faults.

The main ore body, V2, averages 1.76 meters in thickness with the other veins ranging from 0.5 to 5 meters with a maximum of 14 meters collectively spanning several square kilometers (exact areal extent remains unpublished). Published average gold grade is stated at 6-8 grams of gold per ton with exceptionally rich veins reaching a world class 138 grams per ton.

At depths of 2,000-3,000 meters, Wangu enters the realm of ultra-deep mining. Compounding that depth challenge is a blistering geothermal gradient, placing the gold-bearing rock in a roasting 110-200 degrees Celsius (230-392 degrees Fahrenheit), temperatures far beyond human endurance without extreme and prohibitively expensive cooling. Robotic retrieval of the resource becomes essential.

To reduce human risk in high-temperature zones, autonomous mining systems will be the default standard. These will include robotic cutters and remote rock loaders, guided by AI software to navigate the narrow veins. Engineering challenges abound: thermal degradation of electronics, lubricant breakdown, sensor failures, and a multitude of other factors. Even in a robotic environment cooling infrastructure, such as ice slurry plants and high-capacity ventilation, will likely be required, adding significantly to the overall operating costs.

At these depths in a highly faulted regime, rock plasticity and instability add to the risk and costs of recovery.

Wangu’s extreme technical demands evoke parallels with deepwater oil exploration and spaceflight, domains where success has come only through phased engineering, initial high costs, and extensive testing. The project may draw on space-grade alloys and ceramics, deepwater telemetry and control, thermal shielding from reentry vehicles, and autonomous navigation from off-Earth rovers.

China’s mining expertise and Hunan’s infrastructure; power grids, skilled labor, automated systems, may mitigate some of these challenges. Still, the scale and depth of the deposit suggest a complex, phased engineering operation. Development will likely proceed vein-by-vein, shallow to deep, prioritizing high-grade zones to maximize early returns and to refine the learning curve.

Estimating a timeline for this project involves multiple phases: feasibility studies, including geotechnical, thermal, and remote sensing analysis, possibly running from 2028 till 2030. With state support, permitting and financing may be expedited, taking only 1 or 2 years. Construction of shafts, cooling systems, and robotic infrastructure may take another 5-8 years. Commissioning, de-bottlenecking, and problem-solving would add another 1-2 years before peak capacity is reached.

If all proceeds smoothly, first gold may be achieved in 12-15 years. However, given the extreme technical challenges, a more realistic horizon is 15-20 years. In a perfect world first gold may be expected between 2040-2045.

Achieving first gold will likely require $10-15 billion in capital expenditure, with operating costs estimated at $1800-2400 per ounce over a 20-year life of mine and 90% resource recovery. Assuming a starting gold price of $4270 per ounce and a 5% annual growth, the project yields an initial IRR of about 17%. But when factoring in the 40% chance of technical success, across geotechnical, thermal, and robotic domains, the risk-adjusted IRR drops below 7%, rendering the project uneconomic under current conditions. Expect years of recycling before this project is formally sanctioned.

Still in a world increasingly skeptical of fiat currencies, Wangu is more than a source of gold, it is a sovereign hedge, a deep Chinese vault of wealth to anchor a post-fiat strategy.

By way of comparison, Fort Knox reportedly holds 147.3 million troy ounces of gold. Additional U.S. government holdings in Denver, New York, West Point, and other sites brings the total to 261.5 million troy ounces; worth roughly $1.1 trillion at today’s prices. The Chinese government officially holds about 74 million troy ounces worth about $315.6 billion. Wangu could theoretically increase China’s gold holdings by 43%.

Graphic: Gold veins in a host rock.