Monroe Doctrine

In 1823, President James Monroe issued what became known as the Monroe Doctrine, warning European powers against further colonization or interference in the New World. Though never codified into law or treaty, the doctrine became a guiding principle of U.S. foreign policy, invoked and reinterpreted by successive administrations to assert American influence in the hemisphere. Theodore Roosevelt expanded it, Barack Obama’s administration declared it obsolete, and Donald Trump revived its assertive tone. Its malleability is hailed by some as its strength, denounced by others as its greatest flaw.

The Monroe Doctrine became a symbolic fence around the Western Hemisphere, a firewall against nineteenth‑century imperial powers. Over the next two centuries, it evolved through corollaries, confrontations, and periods of dormancy. Today, in the shadow of Chinese expansion, mainly through its Belt and Road Initiative, Latin American states are drawn to twenty‑first‑century infrastructure with age‑old colonialism lurking in the background. But the Chinese buying influence in the hemisphere is aimed directly at the United States, seeking to erode its traditional dominance and reshape regional loyalties.

The Monroe Doctrine was intended to thwart enemies, potential and real, at the gate. With the exception of Cuba, it largely succeeded through the twentieth century. The 21st century now poses a test of whether the doctrine still has teeth.

If conflict with China is fated, then the United States must first secure its own backyard. The Western Hemisphere cannot be a distraction or a liability, a source of angst and trouble. Before turning its full strategic gaze toward the Middle Kingdom, the U.S. must seal the gates of the New World.

The Monroe Doctrine was written mainly by President Monroe’s Secretary of State, John Quincy Adams. It aimed to support Latin American independence movements from Spain and Portugal, while discouraging Russian influence in the Pacific Northwest and preventing the Holy Alliance: Russia, Austria, Prussia, and France, from restoring monarchs in the Americas. But the doctrine was not all sword: the United States also pledged not to interfere in Europe’s internal affairs or its colonies.

In the early 1800s, the United States lacked the ability to enforce such a bargain militarily. Britain, however, was more than willing to use its naval fleet to guarantee access to New World markets and discourage competition.

By the beginning of the twentieth century, Theodore Roosevelt invoked and expanded the doctrine, effectively making the United States the policeman of the Western Hemisphere. During the Cold War, it was used to counter Soviet influence in Cuba, Nicaragua, and Grenada.

By the 1970s the South American drug trade was declared a national security threat and the War on Drugs began with Colombia the epicenter of hostilities. In 1981, U.S. Congress amended the Posse Comitatus Act to allow military involvement in domestic drug enforcement, extending to Latin America. President Ronald Reagan’s 1986 National Security Decision Directive 221 declared drug trafficking a U.S. national security threat, authorizing military operations abroad, including in Colombia.

After the Cold War, the doctrine faded from explicit policy. In November 2013, Secretary of State John Kerry declared at the Organization of American States that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over,” framing a shift toward partnership and mutual respect with Latin America rather than unilateral dominance. By 2020 Colombia’s coca production had hit a new high.

Today, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, port construction and acquisitions, telecom infrastructure, and rare earth diplomacy have carved influence into Latin America and the Caribbean. In this context, the Monroe Doctrine was not asleep but, in a coma, its toes occasionally twitching.

Re-invigorating the Monroe Doctrine is not about making true allies and friends but removing vulnerabilities. The goal is not to bring these nations into the fold but to remove them from Beijing’s orbit.

By mid-2025 official statements claim that ~10% of the U.S. Navy is deployed to counter drug threats, ostensibly from Venezuela and Columbia. But fleet positioning hints at a different story. Most assets are stationed near Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Guantánamo Bay, closer to Cuba than Caracas. Surveillance flights, submarine patrols, and chokepoint monitoring center on the Florida Straits, Windward Passage, and Yucatán Channel.

This may suggest strategic misdirection. Venezuela is the declared theater, but Cuba is the operational keystone. The U.S. may be deflecting attention from its true concern: Chinese or Russian entrenchment in Cuba and the northern Caribbean.

The Monroe Doctrine began as a warning to monarchs across the Atlantic. In the late twentieth century, it morphed into a war on drugs. Today it reappears as a repurposed drug war, flickering as a warning to Beijing across the Pacific. Whether it awakens as policy or remains sleight of hand, its enduring role is to remind the world that the Western Hemisphere is not a theater for distraction but a stage the United States will guard against intrusion. In the twenty‑first century, its test is not whether it can inspire allies, but whether it can deny adversaries a foothold in America’s backyard.

Graphic: Monroe Doctrine by Victor Gillam, 1896. Public Domain.

Gold in the Middle Kingdom

In November 2024, China’s state media announced the discovery of a “supergiant” gold deposit in the Wangu Gold Field, Hunan Province. Initial exploration and delineation drilling confirmed approximately 300 metric tons (9,645,225 troy ounces) in place. Subsequent geologic modeling suggests that the total resource may exceed 1000 metric tons (32,150,750 troy ounces), potentially making it the largest known deposit in the world.

At the current October 2025 gold price of $4,267.30 per ounce that equates to about $137.3 billion in gross value assuming an unrealistic 100% recovery.

But is all this gold recoverable without sinking vast capital only to lose more in the process? Public data remains limited, yet a ballpark estimate is possible.

Incorporating global subsurface mining economics, the project, assuming a capital expenditure of $12.5 billion and operating costs of $2100 per ounce, would be profitable. Its projected return of 17% is respectable but far from spectacular (more on this below). Not the proverbial gold mine, but a respectable sovereign nest egg, nonetheless.

However, when factoring in a 40% chance of technical success, the projects’ risk-adjusted return drops below 7%, falling short of industry’s typical 10% threshold. In economic terms, the project fails; at least under current conditions and postulated costs.

The deposit is hosted in Neoproterozoic, between 1 billion to 538 million years ago, sandy and silty slates within the Jiangnan orogenic belt. It comprises over 40 quartz-sulfide veins, located from 2000-3000 meters (6500-9850 feet), and associated with north-west trending faults.

The main ore body, V2, averages 1.76 meters in thickness with the other veins ranging from 0.5 to 5 meters with a maximum of 14 meters collectively spanning several square kilometers (exact areal extent remains unpublished). Published average gold grade is stated at 6-8 grams of gold per ton with exceptionally rich veins reaching a world class 138 grams per ton.

At depths of 2,000-3,000 meters, Wangu enters the realm of ultra-deep mining. Compounding that depth challenge is a blistering geothermal gradient, placing the gold-bearing rock in a roasting 110-200 degrees Celsius (230-392 degrees Fahrenheit), temperatures far beyond human endurance without extreme and prohibitively expensive cooling. Robotic retrieval of the resource becomes essential.

To reduce human risk in high-temperature zones, autonomous mining systems will be the default standard. These will include robotic cutters and remote rock loaders, guided by AI software to navigate the narrow veins. Engineering challenges abound: thermal degradation of electronics, lubricant breakdown, sensor failures, and a multitude of other factors. Even in a robotic environment cooling infrastructure, such as ice slurry plants and high-capacity ventilation, will likely be required, adding significantly to the overall operating costs.

At these depths in a highly faulted regime, rock plasticity and instability add to the risk and costs of recovery.

Wangu’s extreme technical demands evoke parallels with deepwater oil exploration and spaceflight, domains where success has come only through phased engineering, initial high costs, and extensive testing. The project may draw on space-grade alloys and ceramics, deepwater telemetry and control, thermal shielding from reentry vehicles, and autonomous navigation from off-Earth rovers.

China’s mining expertise and Hunan’s infrastructure; power grids, skilled labor, automated systems, may mitigate some of these challenges. Still, the scale and depth of the deposit suggest a complex, phased engineering operation. Development will likely proceed vein-by-vein, shallow to deep, prioritizing high-grade zones to maximize early returns and to refine the learning curve.

Estimating a timeline for this project involves multiple phases: feasibility studies, including geotechnical, thermal, and remote sensing analysis, possibly running from 2028 till 2030. With state support, permitting and financing may be expedited, taking only 1 or 2 years. Construction of shafts, cooling systems, and robotic infrastructure may take another 5-8 years. Commissioning, de-bottlenecking, and problem-solving would add another 1-2 years before peak capacity is reached.

If all proceeds smoothly, first gold may be achieved in 12-15 years. However, given the extreme technical challenges, a more realistic horizon is 15-20 years. In a perfect world first gold may be expected between 2040-2045.

Achieving first gold will likely require $10-15 billion in capital expenditure, with operating costs estimated at $1800-2400 per ounce over a 20-year life of mine and 90% resource recovery. Assuming a starting gold price of $4270 per ounce and a 5% annual growth, the project yields an initial IRR of about 17%. But when factoring in the 40% chance of technical success, across geotechnical, thermal, and robotic domains, the risk-adjusted IRR drops below 7%, rendering the project uneconomic under current conditions. Expect years of recycling before this project is formally sanctioned.

Still in a world increasingly skeptical of fiat currencies, Wangu is more than a source of gold, it is a sovereign hedge, a deep Chinese vault of wealth to anchor a post-fiat strategy.

By way of comparison, Fort Knox reportedly holds 147.3 million troy ounces of gold. Additional U.S. government holdings in Denver, New York, West Point, and other sites brings the total to 261.5 million troy ounces; worth roughly $1.1 trillion at today’s prices. The Chinese government officially holds about 74 million troy ounces worth about $315.6 billion. Wangu could theoretically increase China’s gold holdings by 43%.

Graphic: Gold veins in a host rock.

Decline Post Bretton Woods

Bretton Woods, a monetary system established during World War II, sought to stabilize the global economy by making the US dollar the central currency for international trade. Other currencies were pegged to the dollar, which foreign governments could convert into gold bullion at a fixed rate. This framework functioned effectively for decades, however, by the late 1960s, inflationary pressures stemming from the Vietnam War and the domestic spending initiatives of the “guns and butter” era, coupled with a growing accumulation of US dollars in foreign accounts, strained the system’s stability. In 1971, the United States suspended the dollar’s gold convertibility, effectively collapsing the Bretton Woods framework and transitioning to a market-based system of freely floating exchange rates, setting the stage for the dollar’s decline.

Since the demise of Bretton Woods, the US dollar has lost approximately 85% of its purchasing power due to inflation, a monetary phenomenon driven by increases in the money supply. Free trade has exacerbated US economics, including the loss of 6.8 million manufacturing jobs between 1979, the peak of manufacturing employment, and 2019. Many of these jobs shifted to China after its entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001. Middle-class wages have stagnated, remaining at an average of $40,000 per year (adjusted for inflation) since 1970, while housing costs have tripled to $400,000. Meanwhile, the rising costs of child-rearing, $310,000 per child in 2023, have contributed to a declining fertility rate, which has fallen from 2.5 to 1.6 children per woman.

China’s role in US economic decline is significant with a trade deficit of $263 billion in goods and services for 2024 alone. Chinese tariffs protect key industries such as steel and electronics, leaving US manufacturing unable to compete. Federal Reserve policies, including a 40% increase in the M2 money supply since 2020, have inflated asset prices like homes and stocks but failed to meaningfully raise middle-class wages. Wealth inequality has intensified, with the top 1% controlling 40% of the nation’s wealth while Middle America’s share continues to shrink. Trade deficits reached $1.2 trillion in 2024.

Trump’s tariffs can be seen as a reaction to these trade imbalances and loss of domestic manufacturing. Additionally, new measures are seeking to rewrite regulatory and fiscal policies, to address these global inequalities. By 2030, projections suggest 2 million new jobs could be created, including 200,000 to 300,000 directly tied to tariffs, with blue-collar median wages rising to around $60,000. A stronger dollar, inflation below 2%, and a revived manufacturing base could potentially revive the American middle-class, making families more optimistic about the future. Continuing on the same trajectory as the past 50 years risks further erosion of the American dream.

The Worst Known Natural Disasters

The three greatest loss of life from natural disasters all occurred in China. Almost 7 million people died in two catastrophic floods and an earthquake.

  1. 1931 China Floods:
    • Death Toll: Estimated around 4 million people.
    • Details: These floods, caused by the overflow of the Yellow River, Yangtze River, and Huai River during an unusually wet summer, led to one of the most catastrophic events in human history. The death toll was from drowning and post-flood starvation.
  2. 1887 Yellow River Flood, China:
  3. 1556 Shaanxi Earthquake, China:
    • Death Toll: Estimated around 830,000 people.
    • Details: 7-8 magnitude earthquake strikes …. China. Majority of inhabitants lived in loess-deposited caves, which collapsed when the quake struck.

Graphic: 1931 China Floods, china-underground.com

Looney Toons–Live Action

Kung Fu Hustle: Sing (Stephen Chow), seeking to transcend his timid nature and achieve greatness, attempts to join a 1940s-era criminal gang in Shanghai. Through much pain and failure, he ultimately discovers his true inner self.

The film is a superb achievement in comedy and special effects, referencing, one way or another, dozens of movies and animated features from the past. Looney Tunes takes a central position in the film, along with The Karate Kid, The Shining, Gone with the Wind, The Blues Brothers, The Godfather, The Hulk, countless martial arts movies, and the final scene tips its hat to The Matrix Reloaded with the zillion Agent Smiths attacking Neo-ahh-Sing.

James Gunn, director of the Guardians of the Galaxy series and the upcoming 2025 Superman release, told Allie Capp in 2021, “Although I can, on occasion, be prone to hyperbole, I say without it here: Kung Fu Hustle is the greatest film ever made.

Genre: Action–Comedy–Crime—Fantasy–Martial Arts

Directed by: Stephen Chow

Screenplay by: Stephen Chow, Huo Xin, Chan Man-keung, Tsang Kan-cheung

Music by: Raymond Wong

Cast: Stephen Chan, Yuen Wah, Yuen Qiu, Eva Huang, Leung Siu-lung

Film Location: Shanghai, China

ElsBob: 8.0/10

IMDb: 7.7/10

Rotten Tomatoes Critics: 91%

Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter: 89%

Metacritic Metascore: 78%

Metacritic User Score: 8.1/10

Theaters: 23 December 2004

Runtime: 98 minutes  

Budget: $20 million

Box Office: $104.9 million

Source: Rotten Tomatoes, IMDb, Metacritic. Capps Allie Capp, WGTC, 2021.Graphic: Kung Fu Hustle Trailer, 2004, copyright Columbia Pictures/Sony Pictures.

Sino Burn

China burns more coal than the rest of world combined, equivalent to almost 92 exajoules of energy in 2023 compared to 72 exajoules for the rest of planet.

For a sense of scale 92 exajoules would power 2.4 billion average U.S. homes for a year. In 2021 it was estimated that there are 2.3 billion homes in the world.

Producing 92 exajoules from coal requires the burning of 4.38 billion metric tons of the sooty stuff. This produces a little more than 9 billion metric tons of CO2, close to 25% of all anthropogenic CO2 produced in the world in 2023.

Source: Statistica. Visual Capitalist. MIT. EPA. Architecture and Design. Graphic: Coal, AI generated.

Nothing Against the State

The title to this post is from Mussolini’s quote: “All within the state, nothing outside the state, nothing against the state.”  The phrase is assigned to fascist ideology, but it is right at home within any authoritarian government.

Below is a partial listing of 20th century sanctioned murder by governments:

  • Mao’s Great Leap Forward: 15-55 million deaths. Chinese communism. 1958-1962
  • The Holocaust: 5-17 million deaths. German Nazis. 1939-1945
  • Ukrainian Holodomor: 1.8-7.5 million deaths. Russian communism. 1932-1933
  • Soviet WWII Prisoners: 3.3-3.5 million deaths. German Nazis. 1941-1945
  • Khmer Rouge Killing Fields: 1.3-3 million deaths. Khmer Rouge/Cambodian communism 1975-1979
  • Polish Genocide: 1.8-3.0 million deaths of non-Jews. 3.0 million Jews included in the Holocaust post above. German Nazis. 1939-1945.
  • Bangladesh Genocide: 300,000-3 million deaths. Pakistani military dictatorship. 1971
  • Polish Gentile Genocide: 1.2-1.8 million deaths. German Nazis. 1939-1945
  • Kazakh Genocide: 1.3-1.75 million deaths. Kazakh communism. 1931-1933
  • Russian Gulag: 1.6 million deaths (possibly more). Russian communism. 1920s to 1953
  • Armenian Genocide: 700,000-1.5 million deaths. Young Turks/Ottoman Empire. 1915-1922
  • Greek and Pontic Genocide: 300,000-1.2 million deaths. Ottoman Empire. 1914-1922
  • Rwandan Genocide: 500,000-1 million deaths. Rwandan dictatorship or totalitarian state. 1994
  • Ustasha Genocide: 357,000-600,000 deaths. Croatia fascists encouraged by the Nazis. 1941-1945
  • Dafur Genocide: 100,000-500,000 deaths. Sudanese Arab dictatorship and Arab militia. 2003-Present
  • East Timor Genocide: 85,000-200,000 deaths. Indonesian military dictatorship. 1974-1999

Source: Wikipedia, Independent, History.com, News.Stanford, Hoover.org. Graphic: Nyamata, Rwanda Memorial Site, by Fanny Schertzer, 2007, GNU Free Documentation License.