Michael Mann predicted 33 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this year. 33 storms have never occurred in 173 years of recorded Atlantic Basin storm history but because of climate change 2024 was going break all the records.

With less than 20 days until peak hurricane season, 5 named storms have developed so far during the Atlantic Basin 2024 season.

It is possible that another 28 storms will occur between now and Thanksgiving but not bloody probable. Mann’s model’s error bar since 2009 has been hovering around plus or minus 27%.

From an historical perspective, the mean number of Atlantic Basin storms that develop every year is 9. The number of storms strengthening into hurricanes each year is about 5 with major hurricanes, Cat 3 and higher, at 2 per year.

Source: Stanley Goldenberg. NOAA. Graphic: NOAA/GOES-East.